Updated: Polls show 3 top races narrowing as campaign draws to a close

Monday evening update:


A new poll released Monday night by Public Policy Polling continued to show the race between Sen. Jeanne Shaheen and Republican challenger Scott Brown a toss-up.



The poll of 1,690 likely voters has Shaheen leading 49 to 47 percent with 4 percent undecided. When undecided voters were asked if they lean toward supporting either candidate, the result was 50 percent for Shaheen, 48 percent for Brown and 3 percent undecided. Women backed Shaheen 54 to 44 percent, while men backed Brown, 52 to 44 percent.


With the margin of error at 2.4 percent, it’s still a dead heat.


The poll was taken from Saturday through earlier Monday.


It’s another in a long line of polls that have the Shaheen-Brown race virtually tied.


PPP, viewed as a Democratic-leaning pollster, said its sample breakdown was 44 percent independent, 29 percent Democratic and 27 percent Republican. PPP said 53 percent of those polled were women and 47 percent were men.


The poll also showed Gov. Maggie Hassan leading Republican Walt Havenstein 51 to 45 percent with 4 percent undecided. When those undecided likely voters were asked who they favor, Hassan led 51 to 46 percent with 3 percent still undecided.


President Barack Obama’s job approval rating was far under water, with 36 percent rating it favorably and 55 percent unfavorably.


As for the Senate candidates, Shaheen’s job performance rating was barely above water, at 47 percent approval and 46 percent disapproval. Brown was barely under water, viewed favorably by 44 percent and unfavorably by 46 percent.


In its polling memo, PPP predicts a narrow Shaheen victory, but noted her support “has not budged from the 49-50 percent mark in PPP’s polling since August. She’s led 50/44, 50/44, 49/45, 49/47, and now 49/47 again. Brown’s support has crept up as undecideds have come off the fence.”


For the PPP polling memo on the New Hampshire races and key races in other states, click here. For the full New Hampshire results, click here.


(Our earlier report follows.)



As the candidates raced toward the finish line in this intense mid-term election campaign Monday, last-minute polling is doing nothing to give any clear indication of the winners in the U.S. Senate race between Sen. Jeanne Shaheen and Republican challenger Scott Brown.


And even the governor’s race and one of the two congressional races are toss-ups as well, polling shows.


Only in the 2nd Congressional District is there a favorite heading into Election Day, as polls have consistently shown Democratic Rep. Ann Kuster with a lead over Republican Marilinda Garcia. But one poll shows even this race has narrowed considerably in the past eight days.


A new U.S. Senate poll was released today by Public Policy Polling, which is widely viewed as a Democratic-leaning pollster. It conducted its survey for the liberal policy/advocacy group Center for American Progress. The poll was conducted last Thursday and Friday, however, discounting any decision-making by voters during the weekend.


A new poll is from Public Policy Polling, taken during the weekend, is expected later today.


The Thursday-Friday poll showed Shaheen up 49 to 47 in a sample of 679 likely voters that broke down as 36 percent self-identified Democrats, 31 percent self-identified Republicans and 33 percent self-identified independents. The margin of error was 3.8 percent, making the race a virtual tie.


The poll also included questions about the minimum wage, the Paycheck Fairness Act, gun-related issues and the Blunt Amendment, which would have allowed employers to deny contraceptive coverage based on moral objections and was supported by Brown and opposed by Shaheen.


The polling sample of “Democrat + 5” was noted by Republicans, who said it showed momentum in their direction.


For the Thursday-Friday PPP polling results released today click here.


The final Granite State Poll conducted for WMUR television, released late Sunday night, included a sample of 757 likely voters polled Saturday and Sunday and had a margin of error of 3.6 percent.


It showed Shaheen up, 47 to 45 percent when those who have not yet finally decided but are leaning are included. Its polling sample breakdown was 38 percent registered undeclared voters, 31 percent registered Democrats and 31 percent registered Republicans. But 43 percent of those polled identified with the GOP, 40 percent identified with the Democratic Party and 17 percent self-identified independent.


Perhaps most troubling to Shaheen and the other Democratic incumbents was the continued drop of President Barack Obama’s popularity in the state. Obama was viewed favorably by 37 percent of those polled and unfavorably by 57 percent. Just more than a week ago, on Oct. 26, Obama was viewed favorably by 41 percent and unfavorably by 56 percent.


Click here for the WMUR/UNH U.S. Senate results.


In the governor’s race, the WMUR/UNH poll now has Republican challenger Walt Havenstein within 5 percentage points of Gov. Maggie Hassan, with Hassan leading 45 to 40 percent. When undecided voters were asked who they lean toward supporting, the race tightened further, to 47 percent for Hassan and 43 percent for Havenstein.


Yet, according to the poll, 64 percent believe Hassan will win and only 21 percent believe Havenstein will win.


Click here for the results of the governor’s poll.


And in the congressional races, U.S. Rep. Carol Shea-Porter and Republican challenger Frank Guinta are in a flat-footed tie at 47 percent when “leaners” are included – the poll has a margin of error of 4.9 percent. In the most recent UNH poll on Oct. 26, Shea-Porter held a 4 percentage point lead.


In the 2nd District, the WMUR/UNH poll shows Kuster leading Garcia, 49 to 38 percent, with a 5.2 percent margin of error. Garcia has narrowed the gap compared to last week’s poll, which had Kuster leading 53 to 30 percent.


Click here for the results of the congressional polls.

Author: John DiStaso

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  • Leon H Rideout

    Wow a Plus 5 Democrat Sampling and its a Dead Heat !! Republicans have a 3 plus registration advantage by the numbers at SOS office which makes this poll a happy day for the Rs