Exclusive: American Crossroads poll shows Brown trailing Shaheen by 3 percent

CONCORD – A poll completed for the pro-Republican super PAC American Crossroads has Sen. Jeanne Shaheen with a 3 percentage point lead over Republican former Sen. Scott Brown in a potential general election matchup in New Hampshire.


“Jeanne Shaheen still leads Scott Brown in the race for the U.S. Senate, but that lead is quickly shrinking,” the pollster, Public Opinion Strategies, says. “Over the course of the next two months, Shaheen is going to be forced to defend her liberal voting record that is in lock step with an unpopular President.”


Shaheen leads Brown 44 to 41 percent with Libertarian Gardner Goldsmith supported by 9 percent, while 6 percent are undecided, according to the GOP polling firm. Goldsmith was included in the poll despite not having gathered enough signatures to make the ballot.


The statewide survey of 500 likely voters was conducted on Aug. 27 and 28. It has a margin of error of 4.38 percent, making a Shaheen-Brown race a statistical tie.


The full poll memo can be found here.


The poll for American Crossroads follows two other recent polls showing a Shaheen-Brown matchup close.


The WMUR Granite State poll, conducted Aug. 7 to 17 by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, had Shaheen leading Brown, 46 to 44 percent. A poll conducted Aug. 27 and 28 by Public Policy Polling on behalf of the League of Conservation Voters showed Shaheen with 50 percent and Brown with 44 percent.


American Crossroads is a 527 super PAC co-founded by former George W. Bush administration top adviser Karl Rove. Its president is Steven Law, former general counsel to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and former Deputy Secretary of Labor under George W. Bush.


In March of this year, the well-known super PAC spent about $650,000 in a television ad buy against Shaheen. It has not advertised in the Senate race since.


The poll showed that a 67 percent of Granite Staters believe the nation is on the wrong track and only 25 percent said it is headed in the right direction. President Barack Obama’s approval rating is 40 percent, while 57 percent disapprove of the job he is doing.


Brown received a favorable rating of 42 percent and an unfavorable rating of 41 percent, while Shaheen was viewed favorably by 49 percent and unfavorably by 44 percent. According to Public Opinion Strategies’ Glen Bolger and Jim Hobart, in the Boston media market, Brown’s favorable/unfavorable stands at 45/40 percent and Shaheen’s is 49/44 percent.


The poll found that Brown has a slight edge in voter intensity, with 32 percent saying they will definitely vote for him and 31 percent saying they will definitely vote for Shaheen.


When asked if they would describe Shaheen as a conservative, moderate or liberal, 53 percent said she is liberal, with 33 percent saying she is very liberal.


“This makes Shaheen ideologically out of step with the state she represents, as only 21 percent of New Hampshire voters describe themselves as liberal,” the polling memo says. The memo also says – as the UNH poll had earlier noted – that Shaheen’s record of voting with Obama 99 percent of the time “is a significant problem for her.”

Author: John DiStaso

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