3 polls in ‘toss-up’ US Senate race, 3 different results

The first full week of the general election campaign got underway with three polls showing three different results.


An independent CNN/ORC International survey of 1,039 Granite Staters, taken Sept. 8 to 11, showed the U.S. Senate race between Sen. Jeanne Shaheen and Republican challenger Scott Brown now in a dead heat, at 48 to 48 percent among likely. The margin of error is listed at 3 percent.

Among 883 registered voters, Shaheen leads, 51-44 percent.


A Democratic poll commissioned by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee showed Shaheen leading Brown, 51 to 43 percent. The margin of error is 4 percent.


A Republican poll completed for Citizens for a Strong New Hampshire showed Brown leading, 45.9 to 44.3 percent.


Also, Real Clear Politics today moved the Shaheen-Brown race from “leans Democratic” to “Toss Up.”


In the CNN/ORC poll, among the likely voters, 81 percent said they have made up their minds, while 17 percent said they might change their minds.


The poll shows a dead heat despite that fact that Shaheen remains far more popular than Brown. Her favorable/unfavorable rating is 54/42 percent while Brown is viewed favorably by 46 percent and unfavorably by 48 percent.


President Barack Obama is an increasing drag on Shaheen. Although Obama won the state handily in the 2008 and 2012 general elections, only 35 percent of Granite Staters now approve of the job he is doing as President, while 60 percent disapprove.


A huge gender gap between the two continues. Brown leads among men, 54 to 41 percent, while Shaheen leads among women, 54 to 42 percent


In the DSCC poll of 600 Granite Staters, by Kiley and Company, showed Shaheen leading Brown with the same eight percentage point lead the group found in its early September survey.


According to a memo by Kiley and Company, Shaheen leads by 24 points among women while Brown leads by 10 points among men.


Shaheen leads, 91 to 7 percent, among Democrats and by 50 to 42 percent among Independents. Brown leads, 78 to 16 percent among Republicans.


Shaheen was viewed favorably by 50 percent of those polled and unfavorably by 45 percent, while Brown was viewed favorably by 38 percent and unfavorably by 51 percent. Shaheen has a +18 percentage point rating among women while Brown is -24.


According to the polling memo:


“In direct comparisons on key traits, Shaheen is overwhelmingly seen as the better choice on: protecting the rights of women (+42) and being committed to New Hampshire (+37).


“Shaheen is ahead on all other positive attributes, including: will protect Medicare/SS (+18); really cares about people like me (+18); and is someone I can trust (+15).


“Brown’s only margin over Shaheen is on a negative dimension: being too close to wealthy special interests (-24).”


Meanwhile, the poll for CSNH by Magellan Strategies – done on Sept. 10-11 among 2,214 likely voters – shows a virtual tie among independents and Shaheen with an 11 percentage point lead – 50 to 39 percent – among women.


CNN/ORC also polled among presidential candiates. On the Republican side, Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul led with 15 percent over Paul Ryan and Jeb Bush, with 10 percent each. On the Democratic side former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton led with 60 percent over Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren with 11 percent.


Author: John DiStaso

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